The relaxation of lockdown has continued globally, and in the UK with hot summer weather this week, it has appeared to prompt a mass migration to the beach. There were so many people in some locations a major incident was declared. All of this is of course against, if not strict government pandemic guidelines, certainly common sense.

It is, however, the summer, we have all been couped up for over 3 months and with 8 million people on furlough, not working but being paid there are a lot of people with spare time. Not surprisingly it is hard to control.

The concern though is whether we have become too relaxed too quickly. There was an interesting article on the impact of early relaxation in Bloomberg, which has had consequences on Coronavirus in the USA (cases from worldometer shown). In the UK is not mentioned, but clearly whilst the situation is currently better here, the dangers are still evident.

COVID19 infection rates are, of course, not an opinion but a matter of science and maths. Just being optimistic, hoping for the best, whilst it may make you feel better, will not really make much positive difference. In actuality it could make things worse if we all let our guard down.

However, accelerated relaxation continues and with pubs due to open on the 4th July all of this will be a test for the economy. Consumers will need to return to keep these businesses afloat and pay wages. If they do not and there is no furlough support they will be in trouble.

With the Furlough scheme to more formally end in October, all of this is starting to crystalize the expected economic impacts.

• Business rents are due
• We already have one in six home owners on a payment break
• Out of work households are already over £1,500 worse off
• Some sections of the population are borrowing more, struggling, often going to high cost credit.

It remains a tricky time, shares are rattled and we continue to see some fallout, even in fintech companies. Expect to see yet more economic impact in terms of unemployment and economic stress. It is already time for businesses to prepare, if not already.

Still life goes on, and a trip to the beach, sit in the sun or in the park may just be what we all need. Let’s just all be careful.

This is the week that was…. try to have a good weekend everyone…. @chris_w_tweet

Right at the end of the week, just like last time, the government announced the intention to further extend the payment deferral scheme for credit cards, store cards, and loans. All of this is with no impact on a customer’s credit bureau record, although it does seem like there will be some increased scrutiny via increased questioning for eligibility.

Although contactless card transactions have increased through lockdown, credit card spend is actually down. Clearly some consumers are using the lockdown measures to simply retain more cash and pay down debt (and not just on financial services products).

There are now over 9m workers in the UK on furlough. Many are worried that they will be made redundant once the scheme ends. And, the government is clearly also worried too, both with the huge cost of the scheme and reports of misuse.

It is all a strange situation. For many, life seems to just be carrying on just as (or returning to) normal, evidenced with large crowds at the shops in England this week. However, for others, the picture is clearly different, with more large employers announcing workforce reductions. This is all on the back of the total debt in the UK now being bigger than GDP. The situation is clearly developing…. one to continue to watch

A few other interesting news snippets too.

• An interesting article on dread risk. Dread risk is psychological the fear of a high profile event, which is disproportionate to the actual impact or likelihood, in comparison to other events. (911 vs heart disease is used as an example). Interesting as it does drive our behavior.
• On another topic altogether… the New Horizons spacecraft, the one that visited Pluto, is now so far from Earth the stars are actually starting to look different due to parallax. Fascinating stuff.

Have a good weekend everyone…. @chris_w_tweet