I think 6,500 is close to true trend. 6,000 could happen though.
Dow 6,000 | Charting Stocks: “In our forecast for 2009 we mentioned that the Dow Jones could break below 6,000 this year. The probability of our prediction being correct was elevated last Monday as the Dow Jones closed below the 2002 lows. We took note of the bearish close but also pointed out that it is the Friday close that we are most interested in and mentioned that the Dow would need to stage a significant rally by Friday.
News of the Citi takeover rattled the markets and the Dow Jones fell further by weeks end closing at 7,063 which was the lowest closing price since 1996. The odds of the Dow Jones challenging the 6,000 level has increased greatly.”