Why it is important to learn from mistakes.
After its much heralded re-start last year, has the world’s biggest machine, the Large Hadron Collider, found a new particle?
Australian scientists have used genetic material to pinpoint the origin of the deep-sea mushroom, an unusual gelatinous creature first dredged up near Tasmania in 1986.
Images from camera aboard Rosetta space probe reveal exact location on comet 67P of hibernating Philae lander, two years after its bumpy landing
Not what you would think….
One of motorsport’s most acclaimed designers, Gordon Murray, has produced a vehicle that “ranks above anything else I’ve ever done”.
Charlie and the Chocolate Factory gives new meaning to “you are what you eat.” In the classic kids’ book, a girl named Violet Beauregarde chews some experimental blueberry-flavored gum—and it turns her blueberry-blue. But for some animals, that’s not too far from the truth: they get their colors from the food they eat. Here are eight critters that get their hues from their diet, plus two honorable mentions: a bird that’s shinier when it eats bugs, and a garden plant that switches between pink and blue.
You probably wouldn’t be able to survive the passage through the door, say the experts – likely ending up stretched out and ‘spaghettified’
Office conversations often turn to finding the best measure for a particular process.
Opinions abound, there is heated discussion, however agreement is usually reached (only to be informed by IT there is no captured data available and no historical values!).
It is common in our search to try to look for a couple of ideal metrics. We are looking for something that will explain our processes in simple terms, providing guidance on how and where we can improve performance.
Our hope is we can add it to the executive dashboard, freeing us from analysing and interpreting vast amounts of data and provide us time in the day to to focus on something else.
And there are some great measures out there; DSO, OEE, Write off rates, Cures per customer per hour per agent and cost per £$ collected are all good examples.
They are incredibly useful in understanding process performance, reporting and comparing against known standards.
However some caution is required and this is needed in part as each of these are lagged indicators.
Something occurs, it get measured, reported and we analyse the performance to understand why this happened.
Lagged indicators are easy to understand, popular and great at explaining what just happened. The past can also be a predictor of the future, especially in stable systems. This is not always the case however.
Where there is significant process change, new patterns will not be necessarily be picked up straight away. It can take time to see effects in results and if the impacts are negative, this can be vital time lost.
In order to solve this, we need to move further up stream and get an earlier warning. It is often useful to find new measures, leading indicators.
Usually with a causal link or significant input to the lagged indicator, they are not a guarantee that something will happen, but are a useful indicator that something significant may occur.
And there are some famous examples
Some economists closely measures the sale of Titanium dioxide, a key ingredient in paint, as a key indicator of the housing market and economic growth
The baltic dry index, measuring ocean shipments globally, a leading indicator of economic activity
Employee satisfaction a leading indicator of customer satisfaction
These measurements lead to the more traditional lagged economic measures, however better reflect what is going on now, rather than having to wait for data to accumulate.
Whilst they help in predicting future trends in lagged indicators, they still measure what is happening today. It does buy some time for strategy adjustment, but often the outcome is already set and yet more time is needed. Introducing the micro-indicator.
Micro-indicators fall in a third category. Small indicators that together point to a much bigger change underway, often before the larger event has even occurred.
An example is an earthquake.
The lagged indicator is the shaking from the earthquake. The event has happened, the impacts are being measured.
The leading indicator is the ground starting to move, an earthquake starting. If you live far away from the epicentre there is some time to react. You do need to be quick however.
Micro-indicators are the subtle changes to bulges in the earth, the micro quakes that take place on surrounding faults, all before the earthquake. In isolation they may not mean much, but taken together and interpreted correctly they can point to a much larger event happening. They give everyone much more time to take action.
The same is true in business processes. Micro-indicators are the small indicators that taken together can inform us early of events underway, allowing us time to react and adjust. They can be invaluable.
The challenge with this approach is the earlier you try to predict something the more uncertain the linkage to the final event can become. Ie the probability that the movement in this measure will result in the larger event is reduced.
To manage this and get higher degrees of certainty, it is therefore important to measure multiple micro-indicators. Measuring multiple micro-indicators increases your confidence that something that will occur. It increases the probablity and allows you to buy that crucial time.
So is the search for the perfect indicator a waste of time?
Traditional measures remain incredibility useful. They have formed the backbone of performance measurement for many years and form a big part of any BI suite. It is still important to have a good blend of lagged and leading key indicators.
However identifying a few key micro-indicators can really help supplement these measures and buy yourself crucial time to adjust processes. It can really help in generating the performance you need.
Yes this is more data and maybe is not the simple world we dream of. But, in the quest to better understanding and control our processes maybe more, not less is better….. (just a little more maybe…!)
In 2012, Mathematician Ian Stewart came out with an excellent and deeply researched book titled “In Pursuit of the Unknown: 17 Equations That Changed the World.”
Dolphins are super-smart and they have a language. New research has probed the complexity of this language and concludes that dolphins not only communicate words with each other, but they are also capable of constructing sentences.
A few weeks before the first Juno high-resolution imaging, I decided to take a look at Voyager color images at various resolutions, with particular attention to high-resolution mosaics. The idea was to get at least some idea of what might be expected from Juno. This resulted in several mosaics, which I will show in order of their resolution, starting with the lowest resolution mosaic.With the exception of one mosaic (the white oval mosaic), the source images are in all cases green- and violet-filtered images. Most of the hi-res Voyager color observations were performed using this filter combination. This is not optimal for constructing true-color images, but I think I managed to get reasonably realistic color. Here is a quick and dirty global image I used as a test — the two source images are orange and violet filtered.
Great book. What you remember is not what you think…!
The European Space Agency (ESA) has just released the most accurate and detailed map of the Milky Way ever, charting the position in space of more than 1.1 billion stars in our galaxy.
Article on diving the lost Ancient Ruins of Lion City at Qiandao Lake in China, with exclusive underwater photography.
ep below the calm surface of Qiandao Lake in the Zhejiang Province of China lie the mysterious ruins of two ancient cities, dating back to the Han and Tang dynasties.
Disaster has struck. A micrometeroid has hit the International Space Station (ISS), and the air inside has begun to rush out of the hole into the vacuum of space. But in a matter of seconds, before the station is destroyed, the hole seals itself and keeps the ISS and its crew intact.
Scientific researchers are elated after a ghostly fish measuring just 10 centimetres was spotted alive for the first time, more than two kilometres below the ocean’s surface.
A dagger entombed alongside the mummy of Egyptian pharaoh Tutankhamun was made with iron that came from a meteorite, researchers say.
had brought my dogs to be part of a “Doggy De-Stress Day” on the campus of a local university. These are becoming more common for many colleges in North America and usually take place during midterm exam or final exam periods. The way it works is that dogs (often therapy dogs, but sometimes just well-behaved pets) are brought to campus and students get a chance to pet and interact with the dogs. The rationale here is that during exam periods stress levels run high in the student population, and there is am